| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | CHLK | −10.1¢ | 100.0% | 8.2% | wc-2026-winner | $6.4M | ↗ |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | MEX | −1100.0¢ | 0.1% | 3.3% | us-iran-peace | $3.5M | ↗ |
| Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | MEX | +1100.0¢ | 100.0% | 2.2% | iran-airspace | $3.0M | ↗ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | DOOM | +13.5¢ | 3.5% | 2.9% | taiwan-conflict | $871k | ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | MEX | −19.5¢ | 90.5% | 1.5% | hormuz-traffic | $680k | ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | DOOM | −10.1¢ | 99.9% | 0.9% | hormuz-shipping | $676k | ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | MEX | −10.1¢ | 99.9% | 1.9% | hormuz-traffic | $676k | ↗ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | DOOM | +16.5¢ | 6.5% | 2.2% | iran-regime | $633k | ↗ |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | MEX | +16.5¢ | 6.5% | 3.7% | iran-regime | $633k | ↗ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | DOOM | +111.5¢ | 11.5% | 2.8% | iran-escalation | $542k | ↗ |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | MEX | +111.5¢ | 11.5% | 4.1% | us-iran-war | $542k | ↗ |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | WOKE | −119.8¢ | 80.3% | 9.0% | us-pres-2028 | $540k | ↗ |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | DOOM | +13.5¢ | 3.5% | 2.0% | pandemics | $540k | ↗ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | USIX | −17.5¢ | 92.5% | 16.7% | | $450k | ↗ |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | TRMP | −17.5¢ | 92.5% | 14.2% | | $450k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +111.5¢ | 11.5% | 1.0% | russia-ukraine | $444k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | PUTX | −111.5¢ | 88.5% | 5.5% | ukraine-territory | $444k | ↗ |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? | MEX | −11.5¢ | 98.6% | 3.5% | us-iran-diplomacy | $386k | ↗ |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | CHLK | +154.5¢ | 54.5% | 4.8% | wc26-reach-final | $363k | ↗ |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | WOKE | +111.2¢ | 11.2% | 6.2% | dem-2028-presidential | $323k | ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | DOOM | −153.5¢ | 46.5% | 0.9% | hormuz-shipping | $305k | ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | MEX | −153.5¢ | 46.5% | 1.9% | hormuz-traffic | $305k | ↗ |
| Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | CHLK | +162.5¢ | 62.5% | 4.1% | wc26-knockouts | $305k | ↗ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | WOKE | +183.5¢ | 83.5% | 5.9% | house-control-2026 | $297k | ↗ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | TRMP | −183.5¢ | 16.5% | 8.8% | midterms-2026 | $297k | ↗ |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | WOKE | −138.4¢ | 61.7% | 5.4% | rep-2028-primary | $282k | ↗ |
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | CHLK | +181.0¢ | 81.0% | 9.2% | nba-2026-finals | $258k | ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | DOOM | −11.4¢ | 98.7% | 1.3% | iran-nuclear | $252k | ↗ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | WOKE | +144.5¢ | 44.5% | 7.9% | us-midterms-2026 | $252k | ↗ |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | TRMP | −144.5¢ | 55.5% | 7.3% | midterms-2026 | $252k | ↗ |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | CHLK | +132.5¢ | 32.5% | 8.2% | mlb-2026-ws | $241k | ↗ |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | DOOM | −11.3¢ | 98.8% | 1.2% | israel-lebanon | $235k | ↗ |
| Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | CHLK | −13.5¢ | 96.5% | 7.3% | nfl-2027-title | $229k | ↗ |
| Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? | CHLK | −120¢ | 80.0% | 5.3% | wc-2026-winner | $212k | ↗ |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | CHLK | −134.5¢ | 65.5% | 3.5% | world-cup-2026 | $209k | ↗ |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | MEX | −119.5¢ | 80.5% | 1.5% | hormuz-traffic | $192k | ↗ |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | PUTX | +156.5¢ | 56.5% | 3.2% | russia-duma-election | $191k | ↗ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R House | TRMP | +116.5¢ | 16.5% | 8.8% | midterms-2026 | $191k | ↗ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? | CRYP | −10.1¢ | 99.9% | 2.8% | btc-price | $175k | ↗ |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | WOKE | +142.5¢ | 42.5% | 9.7% | us-midterms-2026 | $175k | ↗ |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | DOOM | −171.5¢ | 28.5% | 1.5% | iran-nuclear | $175k | ↗ |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | MEX | −171.5¢ | 28.5% | 2.7% | us-iran-nuclear-deal | $175k | ↗ |
| Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? | MEX | +14.3¢ | 4.3% | 1.8% | iran-regime | $165k | ↗ |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | CRYP | +149.9¢ | 49.9% | 3.0% | btc-price | $146k | ↗ |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | DOOM | +17.5¢ | 7.5% | 0.9% | israel-airspace | $143k | ↗ |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | MEX | +17.5¢ | 7.5% | 2.4% | israel-iran-axis-war | $143k | ↗ |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | CHLK | +179.5¢ | 79.5% | 9.2% | nhl-2026-cup | $140k | ↗ |
| Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31? | MEX | +18.5¢ | 8.5% | 2.5% | iran-hormuz | $137k | ↗ |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | PUTX | +19.5¢ | 9.5% | 2.8% | zelenskyy-tenure | $135k | ↗ |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? | TRMP | +16.5¢ | 6.5% | 6.2% | | $129k | ↗ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | DOOM | −11.6¢ | 98.4% | 1.3% | iran-nuclear | $127k | ↗ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | MEX | −11.6¢ | 98.4% | 3.1% | iran-uranium | $127k | ↗ |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | DOOM | +113.5¢ | 13.5% | 1.8% | china-philippines | $123k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +194.5¢ | 94.5% | 1.0% | russia-ukraine | $120k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | PUTX | +194.5¢ | 94.5% | 3.5% | ukraine-territory | $120k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | −135.5¢ | 64.5% | 1.9% | russia-ukraine | $117k | ↗ |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | DOOM | −125.5¢ | 74.5% | 2.1% | russia-ukraine-war | $116k | ↗ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | CRYP | +10.1¢ | 0.1% | 3.6% | btc-price | $113k | ↗ |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | DOOM | +13.2¢ | 3.2% | 2.0% | pandemics | $113k | ↗ |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | DOOM | +14.3¢ | 4.3% | 2.6% | iran-nuclear | $110k | ↗ |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | MEX | +14.3¢ | 4.3% | 3.7% | iran-proliferation | $110k | ↗ |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | CRYP | +14.5¢ | 4.5% | 3.4% | btc-price | $108k | ↗ |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | WOKE | −16.5¢ | 93.5% | 5.8% | french-presidential-2027 | $107k | ↗ |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | DOOM | −153¢ | 47.0% | 1.5% | iran-nuclear | $107k | ↗ |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | MEX | −153¢ | 47.0% | 2.7% | us-iran-nuclear-deal | $107k | ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | DOOM | −112.5¢ | 87.5% | 1.2% | iran-nuclear | $103k | ↗ |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | MEX | −112.5¢ | 87.5% | 2.5% | iran-uranium | $103k | ↗ |
| Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 17, 2026? | MEX | −17.3¢ | 92.7% | 2.0% | israel-lebanon-talks | $102k | ↗ |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | DOOM | +17.1¢ | 7.1% | 2.0% | taiwan-conflict | $99k | ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | DOOM | +115.5¢ | 15.5% | 1.6% | iran-regime | $99k | ↗ |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | MEX | +115.5¢ | 15.5% | 2.2% | iran-regime | $99k | ↗ |
| Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | CHLK | +179.5¢ | 79.5% | 7.7% | tour-de-france-2026 | $99k | ↗ |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | DOOM | +116.5¢ | 16.5% | 2.6% | us-latam-escalation | $98k | ↗ |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | CRYP | −10.4¢ | 99.6% | 4.8% | eth-price | $98k | ↗ |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | DOOM | −178.5¢ | 21.5% | 1.2% | hormuz-shipping | $96k | ↗ |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | MEX | −178.5¢ | 21.5% | 2.4% | hormuz-blockade | $96k | ↗ |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | DOOM | −153¢ | 47.0% | 1.7% | us-iran-tensions | $95k | ↗ |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | GSPX | −149.5¢ | 50.5% | 8.9% | | $95k | ↗ |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | USIX | −149.5¢ | 50.5% | 16.7% | presidential-departure | $95k | ↗ |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | TRMP | −149.5¢ | 50.5% | 13.5% | trump-removal | $95k | ↗ |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | DOOM | −10.5¢ | 99.5% | 1.4% | iran-escalation | $94k | ↗ |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | MEX | −10.5¢ | 99.5% | 4.1% | israel-iran-axis-war | $94k | ↗ |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | −124.5¢ | 75.5% | 1.0% | ru-ua-diplomacy | $94k | ↗ |
| Will Marco Rubio sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? | MEX | −13.0¢ | 97.0% | 3.1% | us-iran-diplomacy | $94k | ↗ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | DOOM | −126.5¢ | 73.5% | 1.3% | iran-nuclear | $93k | ↗ |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | MEX | −126.5¢ | 73.5% | 2.9% | iran-uranium | $93k | ↗ |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | DOOM | −15.5¢ | 94.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-diplomacy | $92k | ↗ |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? | MEX | −173.5¢ | 26.5% | 2.0% | us-iran-diplomacy | $89k | ↗ |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by July 31? | MEX | +113.5¢ | 13.5% | 3.3% | us-iran-diplomacy | $89k | ↗ |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | MEX | −168.5¢ | 31.5% | 1.8% | us-iran-diplomacy | $88k | ↗ |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | CHLK | −113.2¢ | 86.9% | 7.3% | f1-2026-drivers | $88k | ↗ |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | DOOM | +134.5¢ | 34.5% | 1.8% | us-latam-escalation | $86k | ↗ |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | AIX | +165.5¢ | 65.5% | 3.8% | nvidia-market-cap | $85k | ↗ |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | DOOM | +14.0¢ | 4.0% | 2.5% | korea-war | $84k | ↗ |
| Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 31? | AIX | +199.8¢ | 99.8% | 4.0% | | $84k | ↗ |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by August 31, 2026? | MEX | −19.5¢ | 90.5% | 2.7% | israel-lebanon | $81k | ↗ |
| Putin out as President of Russia by September 30, 2026? | PUTX | −13.4¢ | 96.6% | 8.5% | putin-power | $77k | ↗ |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | MEX | −121.5¢ | 78.5% | 2.7% | iran-uranium | $73k | ↗ |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +122¢ | 22.0% | 2.6% | nato-russia | $71k | ↗ |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in June? | CRYP | −10.5¢ | 99.5% | 6.1% | sol-price | $69k | ↗ |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | DOOM | −10.1¢ | 99.9% | 1.1% | israel-hezbollah | $69k | ↗ |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | MEX | −10.1¢ | 99.9% | 3.5% | israel-iran-axis-war | $69k | ↗ |
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | DOOM | +110.5¢ | 10.5% | 2.9% | taiwan-conflict | $68k | ↗ |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | DOOM | +12.9¢ | 2.9% | 1.2% | nato-cohesion | $67k | ↗ |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | PUTX | +12.9¢ | 2.9% | 4.3% | nato-erosion | $67k | ↗ |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | CRYP | −19.5¢ | 90.5% | 6.8% | eth-price | $65k | ↗ |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | CRYP | +11.5¢ | 1.5% | 3.2% | btc-price | $62k | ↗ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | CRYP | −118¢ | 82.0% | 3.8% | btc-price | $61k | ↗ |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | GSPX | −121.3¢ | 78.6% | 7.9% | afd-elections | $58k | ↗ |
| Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | CHLK | −11.2¢ | 98.8% | 5.8% | wimbledon-mens-2026 | $57k | ↗ |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | CRYP | +138.5¢ | 38.5% | 5.1% | regulation | $56k | ↗ |
| Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | CHLK | −14.4¢ | 95.6% | 4.8% | nfl-2027-champs | $55k | ↗ |
| JD Vance out as VP by December 31? | TRMP | −17.5¢ | 92.5% | 5.1% | admin-removal | $50k | ↗ |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? | DOOM | +15.3¢ | 5.3% | 1.3% | us-expansionism | $50k | ↗ |
| US charges Hormuz fees by August 31, 2026? | MEX | +12.9¢ | 2.9% | 2.5% | hormuz-strait | $49k | ↗ |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | DOOM | +15¢ | 5.0% | 1.3% | us-expansionism | $48k | ↗ |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | DOOM | +18.0¢ | 8.0% | 2.5% | taiwan-conflict | $48k | ↗ |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | −164.5¢ | 35.5% | 1.2% | russia-ukraine | $47k | ↗ |
| Will the next model released by OpenAI debut at a score of at least 1470? | AIX | +10.1¢ | 0.1% | 5.3% | openai-leaderboards | $46k | ↗ |
| Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | PUTX | +114.5¢ | 14.5% | 7.3% | ukraine-territory-cession | $45k | ↗ |
| Another pandemic before GTA VI? | DOOM | +149.5¢ | 49.5% | 2.0% | pandemics | $45k | ↗ |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? | DOOM | +17.5¢ | 7.5% | 1.5% | russia-instability | $44k | ↗ |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? | PUTX | −17.5¢ | 92.5% | 5.1% | | $44k | ↗ |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | DOOM | +18.9¢ | 8.9% | 1.1% | iran-nuclear | $43k | ↗ |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | MEX | +18.9¢ | 8.9% | 2.9% | us-iran-diplomacy | $43k | ↗ |
| Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | CHLK | −13.5¢ | 96.5% | 5.0% | nfl-afc-championship-2027 | $43k | ↗ |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by December 31? | MEX | +125¢ | 25.0% | 2.5% | red-sea-disruption | $43k | ↗ |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | DOOM | +134¢ | 34.0% | 1.0% | us-iran-conflict | $42k | ↗ |
| Will the next Grok model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1480 by December 31, 2026? | ELON | +10.1¢ | 0.1% | 5.8% | xai-grok | $42k | ↗ |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | AIX | +159¢ | 59.0% | 7.5% | anthropic-valuation | $40k | ↗ |
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | GSPX | −116¢ | 84.0% | 12.9% | merz-government | $38k | ↗ |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | CRYP | +15.5¢ | 5.5% | 6.8% | eth-price | $37k | ↗ |
| Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | CHLK | −17.4¢ | 92.6% | 6.4% | wimbledon-2026-womens | $37k | ↗ |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | GSPX | −184.5¢ | 15.5% | 8.6% | afd-elections | $36k | ↗ |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by July 31? | MEX | −112.5¢ | 87.5% | 1.6% | us-iran-diplomacy | $36k | ↗ |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | USIX | +194.7¢ | 94.7% | 16.7% | court-compliance | $35k | ↗ |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | TRMP | −194.7¢ | 5.3% | 10.8% | court-rulings | $35k | ↗ |
| Iran coup attempt by December 31? | MEX | +113.5¢ | 13.5% | 2.2% | iran-regime | $33k | ↗ |
| Iran charges Hormuz fees by October 31? | MEX | +155.5¢ | 55.5% | 2.5% | hormuz-tension | $33k | ↗ |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July? | CRYP | +10.6¢ | 0.6% | 6.8% | eth-price | $32k | ↗ |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? | CRYP | +11.2¢ | 1.2% | 2.0% | btc-price | $31k | ↗ |
| Ukraine joins NATO before 2027? | PUTX | −13.7¢ | 96.3% | 5.1% | ukraine-nato | $31k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | DOOM | +112.5¢ | 12.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $31k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | PUTX | +112.5¢ | 12.5% | 6.1% | russia-territorial-gains | $31k | ↗ |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections? | GSPX | −198.4¢ | 1.6% | 8.6% | afd-elections | $30k | ↗ |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +16.0¢ | 6.0% | 2.6% | nato-russia | $30k | ↗ |
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | TRMP | +146.7¢ | 46.7% | 6.2% | cabinet-departure | $30k | ↗ |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown? | ELON | +199.9¢ | 99.9% | 4.7% | starship-ft13 | $29k | ↗ |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | USIX | −11.9¢ | 98.1% | 16.7% | denaturalization | $29k | ↗ |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | WOKE | −11.9¢ | 98.1% | 5.4% | mamdani-nyc | $29k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | DOOM | +14.5¢ | 4.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $27k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | PUTX | +14.5¢ | 4.5% | 4.7% | ukraine-war | $27k | ↗ |
| Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026? | ELON | +183¢ | 83.0% | 4.9% | spacex-milestones | $26k | ↗ |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | PUTX | +13.6¢ | 3.6% | 6.5% | russia-ukraine-concessions | $26k | ↗ |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? | PUTX | +110¢ | 10.0% | 4.8% | ukraine-nato | $26k | ↗ |
| Will Solana reach $90 in July? | CRYP | +10.8¢ | 0.8% | 6.6% | sol-price | $25k | ↗ |
| Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31 | MEX | −149.5¢ | 50.5% | 2.4% | israel-lebanon-withdrawal | $24k | ↗ |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | DOOM | +14.9¢ | 4.9% | 2.0% | nuclear-testing | $24k | ↗ |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | PUTX | +14.9¢ | 4.9% | 5.5% | russia-escalation | $24k | ↗ |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? | CRYP | −12.1¢ | 98.0% | 3.4% | btc-price | $24k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +13.6¢ | 3.6% | 1.2% | russia-ukraine | $22k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | PUTX | +13.6¢ | 3.6% | 5.4% | russia-territorial-gains | $22k | ↗ |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | ELON | +112.6¢ | 12.6% | 3.6% | spacex-launches | $21k | ↗ |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | DOOM | +17.5¢ | 7.5% | 2.0% | | $21k | ↗ |
| XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? | CRYP | +11¢ | 1.0% | 8.6% | xrp-price | $21k | ↗ |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | DOOM | +15.5¢ | 5.5% | 2.6% | iran-nuclear | $21k | ↗ |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | MEX | +15.5¢ | 5.5% | 3.5% | iran-proliferation | $21k | ↗ |
| Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027? | GSPX | +16.7¢ | 6.7% | 6.7% | | $21k | ↗ |
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | ELON | +118¢ | 18.0% | 4.2% | musk-venture-mergers | $20k | ↗ |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +12.8¢ | 2.8% | 1.7% | nato-cohesion | $20k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? | PUTX | +17.1¢ | 7.1% | 2.6% | russia-territorial-gains | $20k | ↗ |
| SpaceX IPO: Officially added to S&P 500 in 2026? | ELON | +13.1¢ | 3.1% | 5.6% | spacex-milestones | $20k | ↗ |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | DOOM | +18¢ | 8.0% | 2.0% | nuclear-testing | $19k | ↗ |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19? | CRYP | +12.5¢ | 2.5% | 5.9% | eth-price-targets | $18k | ↗ |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | GSPX | −140.5¢ | 59.5% | 10.1% | afd-elections | $18k | ↗ |
| New pandemic in 2026? | DOOM | +18.5¢ | 8.5% | 2.2% | pandemics | $18k | ↗ |
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | DOOM | +13.9¢ | 3.9% | 2.1% | | $17k | ↗ |
| Will the next elected US president be a woman? | WOKE | +118.5¢ | 18.5% | 8.4% | us-presidency-gender | $17k | ↗ |
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | DOOM | +15.5¢ | 5.5% | 0.9% | | $17k | ↗ |
| Grok 4.4 released by August 31? | AIX | +1100.0¢ | 100.0% | 4.7% | | $17k | ↗ |
| Grok 4.4 released by August 31? | ELON | +1100.0¢ | 100.0% | 4.0% | grok-release | $17k | ↗ |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? | AIX | +10.9¢ | 0.9% | 3.3% | gemini-pro-release | $17k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Dorozhnie by June 30, 2026? | PUTX | +196.9¢ | 96.9% | 2.7% | | $16k | ↗ |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | AIX | +150.5¢ | 50.5% | 5.3% | gpt-6-release | $16k | ↗ |
| US recession by end of 2026? | RECX | +111.5¢ | 11.5% | 25.0% | us-recession | $16k | ↗ |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | GSPX | −15.8¢ | 94.3% | 8.9% | | $16k | ↗ |
| Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026? | GSPX | −110.2¢ | 89.8% | 8.9% | afd-elections | $16k | ↗ |
| Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? | AIX | +192.7¢ | 92.7% | 6.1% | claude-sonnet-release | $16k | ↗ |
| Iran full airspace closure by August 31? | MEX | +138¢ | 38.0% | 2.5% | iran-airspace-closure | $15k | ↗ |
| Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | GSPX | −120.5¢ | 79.5% | 4.8% | afd-elections | $14k | ↗ |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | WOKE | −15.5¢ | 94.5% | 10.2% | progressive-electoral-ascendancy | $14k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | DOOM | +15.3¢ | 5.3% | 1.0% | russia-ukraine | $13k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | PUTX | +15.3¢ | 5.3% | 3.5% | ukraine-territory | $13k | ↗ |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? | USIX | −10.1¢ | 100.0% | 16.7% | fed-independence | $12k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | DOOM | +121¢ | 21.0% | 0.9% | russia-ukraine | $12k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | PUTX | +121¢ | 21.0% | 3.8% | ukraine-territory | $12k | ↗ |
| Solana all time high by September 30, 2026? | CRYP | +11.1¢ | 1.1% | 8.6% | sol-price | $12k | ↗ |
| SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? | WOKE | −197.9¢ | 2.1% | 12.9% | trans-rights | $12k | ↗ |
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +19.5¢ | 9.5% | 1.0% | ru-ua-frontline | $11k | ↗ |
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? | PUTX | +19.5¢ | 9.5% | 6.5% | russia-territorial-gains | $11k | ↗ |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | DOOM | +138¢ | 38.0% | 0.9% | iran-airspace | $11k | ↗ |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | GSPX | −115.5¢ | 84.5% | 13.6% | merz-government | $11k | ↗ |
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? | WOKE | +110.5¢ | 10.5% | 5.4% | progressive-electoral-ascendancy | $10k | ↗ |
| Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? | AIX | +16.7¢ | 6.7% | 4.2% | benchmark-arena | $10k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | DOOM | +18.5¢ | 8.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $9k | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI’s market cap be between $1T and $1.25T at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027? | AIX | +116.4¢ | 16.4% | 5.9% | openai-ipo-valuation | $9k | ↗ |
| Will Elon Musk rejoin the Trump Administration in 2026? | ELON | +110.6¢ | 10.6% | 3.5% | | $7k | ↗ |
| Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026? | AIX | +112.5¢ | 12.5% | 7.5% | gpt-release | $7k | ↗ |
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | AIX | +110.5¢ | 10.5% | 10.0% | agi-timelines | $7k | ↗ |
| Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? | ELON | +17.5¢ | 7.5% | 7.5% | starship-docking | $6k | ↗ |
| Will GPT-5.6 not be released before August 2026? | AIX | −10.1¢ | 100.0% | 4.0% | gpt-5-6-release | $6k | ↗ |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | DOOM | +14.3¢ | 4.3% | 2.5% | pandemics | $6k | ↗ |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | ELON | +115¢ | 15.0% | 7.5% | tesla-optimus | $6k | ↗ |
| Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by July 31? | PUTX | +19¢ | 9.0% | 2.6% | russia-territorial-gains | $5k | ↗ |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | CRYP | −117.8¢ | 82.2% | 5.5% | altcoin-price | $4k | ↗ |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | RECX | +12.7¢ | 2.7% | 25.0% | us-unemployment | $4k | ↗ |
| Will there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by July 31, 2026? | AIX | −198.0¢ | 2.1% | 5.8% | gemini-release | $4k | ↗ |
| Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by December 31? | ELON | +120¢ | 20.0% | 6.2% | | $3k | ↗ |
| SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? | USIX | −187.5¢ | 12.4% | 16.7% | | $3k | ↗ |
| SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? | TRMP | +187.5¢ | 87.5% | 10.5% | executive-power | $3k | ↗ |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2028? | ELON | +190.5¢ | 90.5% | 7.9% | spacex-milestones | $2k | ↗ |
| Will SpaceX have 200 or more launches in 2026? | ELON | +14.5¢ | 4.5% | 6.1% | spacex-2026-launches | $2k | ↗ |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? | ELON | +19.5¢ | 9.5% | 3.9% | neuralink-valuation | $2k | ↗ |
| US government bans an open source AI model in 2026? | AIX | −121.5¢ | 78.5% | 5.9% | open-source-regulation | $2k | ↗ |
| Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? | CHLK | +165.5¢ | 65.5% | 3.2% | wc26-knockouts | $2k | ↗ |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | AIX | −177.5¢ | 22.5% | 5.0% | arena-1550 | $2k | ↗ |
| Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | CRYP | +17.5¢ | 7.5% | 3.7% | | $2k | ↗ |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | ELON | +144¢ | 44.0% | 3.5% | starship-florida | $1k | ↗ |
| SpaceX Starship fully reusable before 2027? | ELON | +160.5¢ | 60.5% | 7.5% | starship-reusability | $1k | ↗ |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? | DOOM | +125.5¢ | 25.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $1k | ↗ |
| Will less than 5 SpaceX Starship launches successfully reach Space in 2026? | ELON | −123¢ | 77.0% | 5.6% | spacex-starship-launches | $1k | ↗ |
| Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? | TRMP | −118.5¢ | 81.5% | 8.5% | cabinet-departure | $855 | ↗ |
| Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026? | AIX | +136¢ | 36.0% | 4.4% | openai-product-launches | $698 | ↗ |
| Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access? | WOKE | −156.0¢ | 44.0% | 7.8% | trans-rights-legislation | $651 | ↗ |
| U.S. enacts AI safety bill before 2027? | AIX | −118¢ | 82.0% | 7.1% | us-ai-regulation | $332 | ↗ |
| Japan recession in 2026? | RECX | +110¢ | 10.0% | 25.0% | global-recession | $311 | ↗ |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | ELON | −16¢ | 94.0% | 8.0% | tesla-leadership | $289 | ↗ |
| UK Recession in 2026? | RECX | +114.0¢ | 14.0% | 25.0% | global-recession | $203 | ↗ |
