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AI Acceleration
GaugeMarket-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.
46.1
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +8.4
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +8.2
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 8
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $91k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureGauge46.1Market-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.31 markets behind it
The bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (31, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
8 markets · weights sum to 100%Hover a line — or a row below — to isolate a market. 8 legs over 365 days.
Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI before 2027? | +1 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 15.0% | agi-timelines | $7k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31? | +1 | 59.0% | 59.0% | 15.0% | anthropic-valuation | $40k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? | −1 | 70.0% | 30.0% | 13.7% | arena-1550 | $5k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will GPT-6 be released by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 82.5% | 82.5% | 13.2% | gpt-6-release | $6k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | +1 | 53.0% | 53.0% | 11.8% | gpt-6-release | $21k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will next Claude Mythos debut on the Text Arena Leaderboard at 1500+? | +1 | 6.7% | 6.7% | 11.4% | benchmark-arena | $10k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 31? | +1 | 69.5% | 69.5% | 10.9% | grok-4.4-release | $680 | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by June 26, 2026? | +1 | 64.0% | 64.0% | 8.9% | gemini-pro-release | $1k | Jul 31 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherToday3 of 8 legs falling
7 days4 of 6 legs falling
rising toward +falling toward −flat
Carry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 151 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -0.7
Axis charter
Positive (+) = AI capability milestones reached sooner (model releases, benchmark falls, AGI-timeline markets shortening, major lab funding). Negative (-) = slowdowns, moratoria, capability winter signals.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →