Chalk Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +4.1
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +6.8
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 16
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $8.7M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (36, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
16 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | +1 | 81.0% | 81.0% | 15.0% | nba-2026-finals | $258k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | +1 | 79.5% | 79.5% | 15.0% | nhl-2026-cup | $140k | Jun 30 '26 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | +1 | 30.5% | 28.5% | 15.0% | mlb-2026-ws | $248k | Oct 31 '26 |
| Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | −1 | 3.5% | 96.3% | 15.0% | nfl-2027-title | $229k | Mar 31 '27 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | −1 | 13.2% | 95.9% | 15.0% | f1-2026-drivers | $88k | Dec 6 '26 |
| Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | +1 | — | 16.9% | 14.6% | wc-2026-winner | — | — |
| Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? | −1 | 20.0% | 68.5% | 10.3% | wc-2026-winner | $212k | Jul 20 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 53 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.1
Axis charter
Positive (+) means FAVORITES win and upsets fail across major sports competitions: the market's subject is the consensus favorite for its event (the single most-likely winner of the tournament/series/award at scoring time — judged by current price relative to rivals and common knowledge) and YES = that favorite winning, sign +1. If the market's subject is a NON-favorite whose win would be an upset, YES = upset, sign -1. The index reads high when chalk is priced to prevail everywhere and low when chaos is priced in. Only outright winner/champion markets for prominent competitions qualify (World Cup, Champions League, NBA/NFL/MLB titles, majors); single regular-season games are low magnitude. Cluster legs by competition.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →