Chalk Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +4.1
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +16.7
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 16
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $8.6M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (98, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
16 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? | +1 | 81.0% | 81.0% | 9.2% | nba-2026-finals | $258k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? | +1 | 79.5% | 79.5% | 9.2% | nhl-2026-cup | $140k | Jun 30 '26 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | −1 | 0.1% | 100.0% | 8.2% | wc-2026-winner | $6.4M | Jul 20 '26 |
| Will the Los Angeles Dodgers win the 2026 World Series? | +1 | 31.5% | 31.5% | 8.2% | mlb-2026-ws | $96k | Oct 31 '26 |
| Will Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France? | +1 | 79.5% | 79.5% | 7.7% | tour-de-france-2026 | $99k | Aug 9 '26 |
| Will the New England Patriots win the 2027 NFL league championship? | −1 | 3.5% | 96.5% | 7.3% | nfl-2027-title | $229k | Mar 31 '27 |
| Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | −1 | 13.2% | 86.9% | 7.3% | f1-2026-drivers | $88k | Dec 6 '26 |
| Will Iga Świątek be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? | −1 | 7.4% | 92.6% | 6.4% | wimbledon-2026-womens | $37k | Jul 12 '26 |
| Will Tommy Paul be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? | −1 | 1.2% | 98.8% | 5.8% | wimbledon-mens-2026 | $57k | Jul 12 '26 |
| Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? | −1 | 20.0% | 80.0% | 5.3% | wc-2026-winner | $212k | Jul 20 '26 |
| Will Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL AFC Championship? | −1 | 3.5% | 96.5% | 5.0% | nfl-afc-championship-2027 | $43k | Jan 25 '27 |
| Will Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship? | −1 | 4.4% | 95.6% | 4.8% | nfl-2027-champs | $55k | Jan 25 '27 |
| Will France reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? | +1 | 54.5% | 54.5% | 4.8% | wc26-reach-final | $363k | Jul 20 '26 |
| Will Argentina reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | +1 | 62.5% | 62.5% | 4.1% | wc26-knockouts | $305k | Jul 13 '26 |
| Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? | −1 | 34.5% | 65.5% | 3.5% | world-cup-2026 | $209k | Jul 19 '26 |
| Will Morocco be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? | +1 | 65.5% | 65.5% | 3.2% | wc26-knockouts | $2k | Jul 20 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 38 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.1
Axis charter
Positive (+) means FAVORITES win and upsets fail across major sports competitions: the market's subject is the consensus favorite for its event (the single most-likely winner of the tournament/series/award at scoring time — judged by current price relative to rivals and common knowledge) and YES = that favorite winning, sign +1. If the market's subject is a NON-favorite whose win would be an upset, YES = upset, sign -1. The index reads high when chalk is priced to prevail everywhere and low when chaos is priced in. Only outright winner/champion markets for prominent competitions qualify (World Cup, Champions League, NBA/NFL/MLB titles, majors); single regular-season games are low magnitude. Cluster legs by competition.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →