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Global Recession
GaugeMarket-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.
4.8
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +1.4
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +0.8
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 4
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $67k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureGauge4.8Market-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.50 markets behind it
The bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (50, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
4 markets · weights sum to 100%Hover a line — or a row below — to isolate a market. 4 legs over 365 days.
Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US recession by end of 2026? | +1 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 25.0% | us-recession | $16k | Jan 31 '27 |
| Japan recession in 2026? | +1 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 25.0% | global-recession | $272 | Mar 31 '27 |
| UK Recession in 2026? | +1 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 25.0% | global-recession | $2k | Mar 31 '27 |
| Will the July 2026 unemployment rate be ≥4.7%? | +1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 25.0% | us-unemployment | $50k | Aug 7 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherToday2 of 4 legs rising
7 days3 of 4 legs falling
rising toward +falling toward −flat
Carry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 134 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -1.0
Axis charter
Positive (+) = recession/contraction outcomes occurring (US, EU, China recession markets, unemployment threshold breaches, default events). Negative (-) = growth/soft-landing outcomes.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →