Crypto Bull Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −2.2
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +4.4
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 12
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $711k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (162, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
12 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 13.7% | eth-price | $65k | Jan 1 '27 |
| XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 5.1% | 5.1% | 12.2% | xrp-price | $37k | Oct 1 '26 |
| Solana all time high by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 3.1% | 3.1% | 12.2% | sol-price | $35k | Oct 1 '26 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in June? | −1 | 4.0% | 96.0% | 11.3% | eth-price | $51k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will Solana dip to $50 in June? | −1 | 6.6% | 93.4% | 10.4% | sol-price | $14k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 17.8% | 82.2% | 7.8% | altcoin-price | $4k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | +1 | 47.0% | 47.0% | 7.3% | regulation | $55k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 7.0% | 7.0% | 5.4% | btc-price | $92k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 5.1% | btc-price | $89k | Oct 1 '26 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | +1 | 49.3% | 49.3% | 4.9% | btc-price | $100k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in June? | −1 | 4.8% | 95.3% | 4.8% | btc-price | $79k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 4.8% | btc-price | $91k | Jan 1 '27 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 117 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -0.3
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor crypto-positive outcomes: BTC/ETH/major-asset prices reaching or holding ABOVE thresholds, spot ETF approvals or inflows milestones, strategic reserve or favorable regulation enacted, major adoption events, all-time highs. Negative (-) means crypto-negative outcomes: prices falling BELOW thresholds, ETF rejections, hostile regulation or enforcement, exchange failures, hacks of systemic size. For price-threshold markets the sign follows the direction: 'X above P by DATE' is +1, 'X below P by DATE' or 'X dips to P' is -1. Cluster same-asset price markets (e.g. all BTC strikes) together.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →