Crypto Bull Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −2.2
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +6.0
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 20
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $1.1M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (834, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
20 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 1.0% | 1.0% | 8.6% | xrp-price | $21k | Oct 1 '26 |
| Solana all time high by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 1.1% | 1.1% | 8.6% | sol-price | $12k | Oct 1 '26 |
| Ethereum all time high by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 6.8% | eth-price | $37k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 9.5% | 90.5% | 6.8% | eth-price | $65k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,300 in July? | +1 | 0.6% | 0.6% | 6.8% | eth-price | $36k | Aug 1 '26 |
| Will Solana reach $90 in July? | +1 | 0.8% | 0.8% | 6.6% | sol-price | $23k | Aug 1 '26 |
| Will Solana dip to $60 in June? | −1 | 0.5% | 99.5% | 6.1% | sol-price | $69k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will Ethereum reach $2,000 July 13-19? | +1 | 2.5% | 2.5% | 5.9% | eth-price-targets | $18k | Jul 20 '26 |
| Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 17.8% | 82.2% | 5.5% | altcoin-price | $4k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? | +1 | 38.5% | 38.5% | 5.1% | regulation | $56k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? | −1 | 0.4% | 99.6% | 4.8% | eth-price | $98k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $40,000 by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 3.8% | btc-price | $61k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will X launch a USD stablecoin in 2026? | +1 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 3.7% | $2k | Jan 1 '27 | |
| Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in July? | +1 | 0.1% | 0.1% | 3.6% | btc-price | $91k | Aug 1 '26 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 3.4% | btc-price | $108k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 29-July 5? | −1 | 2.1% | 98.0% | 3.4% | btc-price | $24k | Jul 6 '26 |
| Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 1.5% | 1.5% | 3.2% | btc-price | $64k | Oct 1 '26 |
| Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | +1 | 49.9% | 49.9% | 3.0% | btc-price | $146k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? | −1 | 0.1% | 99.9% | 2.8% | btc-price | $175k | Jul 1 '26 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? | +1 | 1.2% | 1.2% | 2.0% | btc-price | $31k | Jun 22 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 67 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -0.3
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor crypto-positive outcomes: BTC/ETH/major-asset prices reaching or holding ABOVE thresholds, spot ETF approvals or inflows milestones, strategic reserve or favorable regulation enacted, major adoption events, all-time highs. Negative (-) means crypto-negative outcomes: prices falling BELOW thresholds, ETF rejections, hostile regulation or enforcement, exchange failures, hacks of systemic size. For price-threshold markets the sign follows the direction: 'X above P by DATE' is +1, 'X below P by DATE' or 'X dips to P' is -1. Cluster same-asset price markets (e.g. all BTC strikes) together.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →