Wokeness Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +0.6
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −14.7
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 13
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $2.1M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (40, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
13 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS upholds trans sports bans? | −1 | 97.9% | 2.1% | 12.9% | trans-rights | $12k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | −1 | 5.5% | 94.5% | 10.2% | progressive-electoral-ascendancy | $14k | Dec 31 '26 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | +1 | 42.5% | 42.5% | 9.7% | us-midterms-2026 | $175k | Nov 3 '26 |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | −1 | 19.8% | 80.3% | 9.0% | us-pres-2028 | $540k | Nov 7 '28 |
| Will the next elected US president be a woman? | +1 | 18.5% | 18.5% | 8.4% | us-presidency-gender | $17k | Nov 7 '28 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections? | +1 | 44.5% | 44.5% | 7.9% | us-midterms-2026 | $252k | Nov 3 '26 |
| Arizona passes ballot measure restricting transgender school and athletic access? | −1 | 56.0% | 44.0% | 7.8% | trans-rights-legislation | $651 | Nov 3 '26 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | +1 | 11.2% | 11.2% | 6.2% | dem-2028-presidential | $323k | Nov 7 '28 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | +1 | 83.5% | 83.5% | 5.9% | house-control-2026 | $297k | Nov 3 '26 |
| Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | −1 | 6.5% | 93.5% | 5.8% | french-presidential-2027 | $107k | Apr 30 '27 |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | −1 | 1.9% | 98.1% | 5.4% | mamdani-nyc | $25k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | −1 | 38.4% | 61.7% | 5.4% | rep-2028-primary | $282k | Nov 7 '28 |
| Will Mamdani raise the minimum wage to $30 before 2027? | +1 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 5.4% | progressive-electoral-ascendancy | $10k | Dec 31 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 320 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.1
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor outcomes that INCREASE the prevalence, adoption, or institutional standing of progressive social-justice norms and policies in the United States and Western institutions: DEI programs surviving or expanding, trans-inclusive policies enacted or upheld, progressive cultural figures or works winning major recognition, universities/corporations maintaining identity-conscious policies, courts upholding such policies. Negative (-) means rollbacks, bans, court losses, or high-profile institutional retreats from those norms. ELECTORAL OUTCOMES ARE CENTRAL on this axis, not proxies: a prominently progressive candidate (e.g. democratic-socialist or social-justice-platform politicians) winning major office is a direct + outcome (high centrality); a prominently anti-woke candidate winning, or a progressive figure losing/being removed, is a direct - outcome. This is a PREVALENCE axis, not a desirability axis: judge only whether the outcome raises or lowers the prevalence and institutional standing of these norms, never whether that is good or bad. A market like 'University X ends DEI programs' resolving YES is negative on this axis by definition.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →