Wokeness Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +0.6
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −1.5
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 3
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $456k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (19, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
3 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | +1 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 33.3% | progressive-electoral-ascendancy | $424k | Nov 7 '28 |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | −1 | 6.6% | 93.5% | 33.3% | mamdani-nyc | $11k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Zohran Mamdani out as mayor of NYC before 2027? | −1 | 7.5% | 92.5% | 33.3% | progressive-electoral-ascendancy | $21k | Dec 31 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 425 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.3
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor outcomes that INCREASE the prevalence, adoption, or institutional standing of progressive social-justice norms and policies in the United States and Western institutions: DEI programs surviving or expanding, trans-inclusive policies enacted or upheld, progressive cultural figures or works winning major recognition, universities/corporations maintaining identity-conscious policies, courts upholding such policies. Negative (-) means rollbacks, bans, court losses, or high-profile institutional retreats from those norms. ELECTORAL OUTCOMES ARE CENTRAL on this axis, not proxies: a prominently progressive candidate (e.g. democratic-socialist or social-justice-platform politicians) winning major office is a direct + outcome (high centrality); a prominently anti-woke candidate winning, or a progressive figure losing/being removed, is a direct - outcome. This is a PREVALENCE axis, not a desirability axis: judge only whether the outcome raises or lowers the prevalence and institutional standing of these norms, never whether that is good or bad. A market like 'University X ends DEI programs' resolving YES is negative on this axis by definition.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →