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Putin Power
GaugeMarket-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.
36.0
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +6.8
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +5.6
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 21
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $1.4M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureGauge50.9Market-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.77 markets behind it
The bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (77, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
21 markets · weights sum to 100%Hover a line — or a row below — to isolate a market. 7 legs over 365 days.
Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | −1 | — | 91.5% | 15.0% | putin-tenure | — | — |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 3.9% | 9.5% | 15.0% | russia-ukraine-concessions | $26k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | +1 | 56.5% | 57.5% | 15.0% | russia-duma-election | $191k | Sep 30 '26 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 11.5% | 90.5% | 14.3% | ukraine-territory | $444k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | +1 | 21.0% | 17.5% | 14.3% | ukraine-territory | $12k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 5.3% | 4.5% | 13.2% | ukraine-territory | $13k | Sep 30 '26 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 94.5% | 84.0% | 13.2% | ukraine-territory | $120k | Dec 31 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherToday10 of 21 legs rising
7 days11 of 21 legs rising
rising toward +falling toward −flat
Carry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 130 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -0.5
Axis charter
Positive (+) = Putin retains or extends power and Russia escalates or wins concessions. Negative (-) = Putin leaves power (any mechanism), Russia makes major concessions or suffers strategic defeat.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →