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US Institutional Health
GaugeMarket-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.
75.0
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −21.4
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −20.9
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 6
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $439k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureGauge75.0Market-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.99 markets behind it
The bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (99, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
6 markets · weights sum to 100%Hover a line — or a row below — to isolate a market. 6 legs over 365 days.
Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | +1 | 94.7% | 94.7% | 16.7% | court-compliance | $35k | Aug 31 '26 |
| Will Trump try to fire Powell as Fed Board Member by June 30, 2026? | −1 | 0.1% | 100.0% | 16.7% | fed-independence | $12k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | −1 | 49.5% | 50.5% | 16.7% | presidential-departure | $79k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Zohran Mamdani citizenship revoked before 2027? | −1 | 3.0% | 97.0% | 16.7% | denaturalization | $23k | Jan 1 '27 |
| SCOTUS lets Trump fire FTC commissioners in Trump v. Slaughter? | −1 | 87.5% | 12.4% | 16.7% | $3k | Dec 31 '26 | |
| Trump out as President before 2027? | −1 | 4.5% | 95.5% | 16.7% | $287k | Jan 1 '27 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherToday2 of 6 legs rising
7 days2 of 6 legs rising
rising toward +falling toward −flat
Carry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 42 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.7
Axis charter
Positive (+) = elections certified through normal process, court rulings complied with, Federal Reserve independence intact, no constitutional crisis, scheduled transfers of power, no political violence. Negative (-) = the opposite. Status-quo axis; not a partisan axis.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →