World Doom Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +8.6
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +7.7
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 62
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $8.3M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (271, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
62 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | +1 | 5.5% | 12.5% | 4.7% | taiwan-conflict | $86k | Jul 1 '27 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | +1 | 3.5% | 6.5% | 4.7% | taiwan-conflict | $871k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | +1 | 11.5% | 17.5% | 4.4% | iran-escalation | $542k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | +1 | 6.2% | 7.5% | 4.2% | iran-nuclear | $44k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | +1 | 4.3% | 9.4% | 4.2% | iran-nuclear | $110k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 6.0% | 6.2% | 4.2% | nato-russia | $30k | Dec 31 '26 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 17.0% | 14.5% | 4.2% | nato-russia | $34k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | +1 | 16.5% | 18.5% | 4.2% | us-latam-escalation | $98k | Dec 31 '26 |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 2.3% | 5.9% | 4.0% | pandemics | $8k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan by in 2026? | +1 | 2.5% | 6.5% | 4.0% | taiwan-conflict | $68k | Jan 1 '27 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 3.4% | 9.5% | 3.6% | pandemics | $31k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | +1 | 6.5% | 12.5% | 3.6% | iran-regime | $633k | Dec 31 '26 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | +1 | 4.6% | 10.5% | 3.3% | taiwan-conflict | $86k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Another pandemic before GTA VI? | +1 | 50.5% | 50.5% | 3.2% | pandemics | $40k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 2.3% | 3.6% | 3.2% | pandemics | $82k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 2.9% | 7.5% | 3.2% | pandemics | $22k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 15.5% | 53.5% | 3.1% | russia-ukraine | $145k | Jan 1 '27 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | −1 | — | 20.5% | 2.9% | us-iran-peace | — | — |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | +1 | 34.5% | 38.5% | 2.9% | us-latam-escalation | $86k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | +1 | 15.5% | 23.5% | 2.6% | iran-regime | $99k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | −1 | 71.5% | 28.5% | 2.4% | iran-nuclear | $175k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | −1 | 53.0% | 47.0% | 2.4% | iran-nuclear | $107k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 1.4% | 84.5% | 2.1% | iran-nuclear | $252k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | −1 | 26.5% | 58.5% | 2.1% | iran-nuclear | $93k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | +1 | 1.6% | 5.3% | 2.0% | nato-cohesion | $66k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 78.5% | 21.5% | 2.0% | hormuz-shipping | $96k | Jul 31 '26 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | −1 | 12.5% | 83.5% | 2.0% | iran-nuclear | $103k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 5.3% | 4.5% | 1.6% | russia-ukraine | $13k | Sep 30 '26 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 11.5% | 9.5% | 1.6% | russia-ukraine | $444k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 94.5% | 84.0% | 1.6% | russia-ukraine | $120k | Dec 31 '26 |
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | +1 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 1.5% | $17k | Dec 31 '26 | |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | −1 | 0.1% | 50.5% | 1.4% | hormuz-shipping | $1.6M | Jul 31 '26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | −1 | 11.5% | 16.5% | 1.4% | hormuz-shipping | $291k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | +1 | — | 47.5% | 1.4% | iran-airspace | — | — |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 56 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -0.5
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor CATASTROPHIC or destabilizing global outcomes occurring within the horizon: onset or escalation of interstate war, nuclear weapon detonation or use, chemical/biological weapon use, new pandemics or major disease outbreaks, invasion of one state by another, collapse of states or major alliances, mass-casualty terror events, and direct military conflict between major powers. Negative (-) means outcomes that reduce or avoid catastrophe: ceasefires holding, peace deals signed, de-escalation, arms-control agreements, conflicts ending. This index is LONG catastrophe by construction: a market where YES = 'war breaks out' has sign +1; a market where YES = 'ceasefire holds' has sign -1. Judge only event severity for global stability, not desirability.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →