| Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | +1 | 10.5% | 10.5% | 2.9% | taiwan-conflict | $70k | Jun 30 '27 |
| Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | +1 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.9% | taiwan-conflict | $871k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | +1 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 2.8% | iran-escalation | $542k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | +1 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 2.6% | iran-nuclear | $21k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | +1 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.6% | iran-nuclear | $110k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 6.0% | 6.0% | 2.6% | nato-russia | $30k | Dec 31 '26 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 22.0% | 22.0% | 2.6% | nato-russia | $69k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | +1 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 2.6% | us-latam-escalation | $98k | Dec 31 '26 |
| New Coronavirus Pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 2.5% | pandemics | $6k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | +1 | 4.0% | 4.0% | 2.5% | korea-war | $84k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will China blockade Taiwan in 2026? | +1 | 8.0% | 8.0% | 2.5% | taiwan-conflict | $50k | Dec 31 '26 |
| New pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 2.2% | pandemics | $19k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | +1 | 6.5% | 6.5% | 2.2% | iran-regime | $633k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? | −1 | 25.5% | 74.5% | 2.1% | russia-ukraine-war | $116k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will NATO countries clash with each other before 2027? | +1 | 3.9% | 3.9% | 2.1% | | $17k | Dec 31 '26 |
| China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? | +1 | 7.1% | 7.1% | 2.0% | taiwan-conflict | $99k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Another pandemic before GTA VI? | +1 | 49.5% | 49.5% | 2.0% | pandemics | $45k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 3.5% | 3.5% | 2.0% | pandemics | $539k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Ebola pandemic in 2026? | +1 | 3.1% | 3.1% | 2.0% | pandemics | $115k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by September 30 2026? | +1 | 4.9% | 4.9% | 2.0% | nuclear-testing | $24k | Sep 30 '26 |
| Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026? | +1 | 8.0% | 8.0% | 2.0% | nuclear-testing | $19k | Dec 31 '26 |
| NATO article 5 before 2027? | +1 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 2.0% | | $21k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 35.5% | 64.5% | 1.9% | russia-ukraine | $110k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US strike on Cuba by December 31? | +1 | 34.5% | 34.5% | 1.8% | us-latam-escalation | $86k | Dec 31 '26 |
| China x Philippines military clash before 2027? | +1 | 13.5% | 13.5% | 1.8% | china-philippines | $123k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31? | −1 | 52.5% | 47.5% | 1.7% | us-iran-tensions | $100k | Aug 31 '26 |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 2.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | nato-cohesion | $21k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | +1 | 15.5% | 15.5% | 1.6% | iran-regime | $99k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Russia coup attempt in 2026? | +1 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 1.5% | russia-instability | $44k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | −1 | 71.5% | 28.5% | 1.5% | iran-nuclear | $175k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | −1 | 53.0% | 47.0% | 1.5% | iran-nuclear | $107k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 0.5% | 99.5% | 1.4% | iran-escalation | $92k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 1.4% | 98.7% | 1.3% | iran-nuclear | $252k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | −1 | 26.5% | 73.5% | 1.3% | iran-nuclear | $93k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | −1 | 1.6% | 98.4% | 1.3% | iran-nuclear | $127k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? | +1 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 1.3% | us-expansionism | $50k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the U.S. invade Mexico in 2026? | +1 | 5.0% | 5.0% | 1.3% | us-expansionism | $48k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 64.5% | 35.5% | 1.2% | russia-ukraine | $47k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? | +1 | 2.9% | 2.9% | 1.2% | nato-cohesion | $67k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 78.5% | 21.5% | 1.2% | hormuz-shipping | $96k | Jul 31 '26 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | −1 | 12.5% | 87.5% | 1.2% | iran-nuclear | $103k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 3.6% | 3.6% | 1.2% | russia-ukraine | $22k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 1.3% | 98.8% | 1.2% | israel-lebanon | $235k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027? | +1 | 8.9% | 8.9% | 1.1% | iran-nuclear | $43k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 0.2% | 99.8% | 1.1% | israel-hezbollah | $64k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 24.5% | 75.5% | 1.0% | ru-ua-diplomacy | $94k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | +1 | 34.0% | 34.0% | 1.0% | us-iran-conflict | $42k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 1.0% | ru-ua-frontline | $11k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 5.3% | 5.3% | 1.0% | russia-ukraine | $13k | Sep 30 '26 |
| Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 11.5% | 11.5% | 1.0% | russia-ukraine | $444k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 94.5% | 94.5% | 1.0% | russia-ukraine | $120k | Dec 31 '26 |
| KRG declares independence from Iraq by December 31? | +1 | 5.5% | 5.5% | 0.9% | | $17k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 25.5% | 25.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $1k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by August 31? | −1 | 5.5% | 94.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-diplomacy | $92k | Aug 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture Sumy by March 31, 2027? | +1 | 12.5% | 12.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $31k | Mar 31 '27 |
| Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? | +1 | 21.0% | 21.0% | 0.9% | russia-ukraine | $12k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | −1 | 0.3% | 99.8% | 0.9% | hormuz-shipping | $642k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | −1 | 53.5% | 46.5% | 0.9% | hormuz-shipping | $309k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? | +1 | 38.0% | 38.0% | 0.9% | iran-airspace | $11k | Sep 1 '26 |
| Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | +1 | 7.5% | 7.5% | 0.9% | israel-airspace | $143k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by September 30, 2026? | +1 | 8.5% | 8.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $9k | Sep 30 '26 |
| Will Russia capture Sloviansk by December 31? | +1 | 4.5% | 4.5% | 0.9% | ru-ua-frontline | $27k | Dec 31 '26 |
