Trump Power Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −5.9
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −6.4
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 5
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $370k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (84, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
5 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will no one leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | +1 | 15.9% | 15.9% | 20.0% | cabinet-departure | $7k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | −1 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 20.0% | trump-removal | $24k | Jul 31 '26 |
| SCOTUS strikes down Trump's Birthright Citizenship EO? | −1 | 96.3% | 3.8% | 20.0% | court-rulings | $27k | Aug 31 '26 |
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | −1 | 82.5% | 17.5% | 20.0% | midterms-2026 | $312k | Nov 3 '26 |
| Will 7 or more people leave the Trump Cabinet by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 19.0% | 81.0% | 20.0% | cabinet-departure | $621 | Dec 31 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 132 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.6
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor Donald Trump retaining or expanding political power and his agenda being enacted: favorable court rulings, cabinet/appointee confirmations, signature policies (tariffs, immigration orders) implemented and surviving challenge, approval-threshold markets resolving high, allies winning elections, no successful impeachment/removal. Negative (-) means power-reducing outcomes: policies struck down or reversed, impeachment/removal/incapacity, major electoral losses for allies, approval-threshold markets resolving low, court defeats. This is a POWER axis, not an approval axis: judge only whether the outcome increases or decreases Trump's effective power, never its desirability.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →