Elon Index
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −11.6
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −17.4
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 6
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $46k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (39, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
6 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by December 31? | +1 | 35.5% | 35.5% | 16.7% | musk-venture-mergers | $18k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Tesla release Optimus by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 16.5% | 16.5% | 16.7% | tesla-optimus | $2k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Musk out as Tesla CEO before 2027? | −1 | 7.3% | 92.7% | 16.7% | tesla-leadership | $3k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Grok 4.4 released by July 31? | +1 | 69.5% | 69.5% | 16.7% | xai-grok-release | $680 | Jul 31 '26 |
| Will Neuralink's valuation hit (HIGH) $100B by December 31? | +1 | 9.5% | 9.5% | 16.7% | neuralink-valuation | $2k | Jan 1 '27 |
| Will the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by December 31, 2026? | +1 | 12.6% | 12.6% | 16.7% | spacex-launches | $21k | Dec 31 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 174 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- -0.7
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor Elon Musk's ventures and influence advancing: SpaceX milestones (Starship launches/landings, Mars program), Tesla delivery/price/product milestones reached, xAI/Grok capability or business milestones, X platform growth metrics, Musk net-worth thresholds upward, political influence intact or growing. Negative (-) means setbacks: failed launches counted as mission failures, missed delivery/product deadlines, regulatory defeats, net-worth thresholds downward, loss of political influence, departures from ventures. Mention-style markets ('will Musk say/do X') are usually low magnitude unless the action itself moves a venture.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →