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Middle East Escalation
GaugeMarket-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.
47.5
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +0.6
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- −1.9
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 38
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $12.4M
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureGauge47.5Market-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.204 markets behind it
The bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (204, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
38 markets · weights sum to 100%Hover a line — or a row below — to isolate a market. 17 legs over 365 days.
Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | +1 | 11.5% | 17.5% | 8.7% | us-iran-war | $542k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | +1 | 6.5% | 12.5% | 7.8% | iran-regime | $633k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? | +1 | 4.3% | 9.4% | 7.8% | iran-proliferation | $110k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran nuclear test before 2027? | +1 | 5.5% | 7.5% | 7.3% | iran-proliferation | $21k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 100.0% | 20.5% | 6.9% | us-iran-peace | $3.5M | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? | −1 | 1.6% | 73.0% | 6.5% | iran-uranium | $127k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31? | −1 | 26.5% | 58.5% | 6.1% | iran-uranium | $93k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | −1 | 21.5% | 60.5% | 5.8% | iran-uranium | $73k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | −1 | 71.5% | 28.5% | 5.7% | us-iran-nuclear-deal | $175k | Dec 31 '26 |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? | −1 | 53.0% | 47.0% | 5.7% | us-iran-nuclear-deal | $107k | Jul 31 '26 |
| US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? | −1 | 12.5% | 83.5% | 5.4% | iran-uranium | $103k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? | −1 | 78.5% | 21.5% | 5.0% | hormuz-blockade | $96k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Iran leadership change by December 31? | +1 | 15.5% | 23.5% | 4.7% | iran-regime | $99k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? | +1 | 100.0% | 47.5% | 4.6% | iran-airspace | $3.0M | Jan 1 '27 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | −1 | 0.3% | 50.5% | 4.0% | hormuz-traffic | $642k | Jul 31 '26 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? | −1 | 53.5% | 16.5% | 4.0% | hormuz-traffic | $309k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | −1 | — | 86.5% | 4.0% | israel-lebanon | — | — |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherToday17 of 38 legs falling
7 days26 of 37 legs falling
rising toward +falling toward −flat
Carry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 80 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 0.1
Axis charter
Positive (+) = escalation events (strikes, blockades, war onset, proliferation). Negative (-) = de-escalation (ceasefires, deals, normalization).
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →