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GSPX

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Germany Stability & Prosperity

GaugeMarket-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.
61.2
1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
+3.2
7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
+2.0
MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
11
LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
$355k

The index over time

Gauge61.2Market-implied temperature of the theme, 0–100.28 markets behind it

The bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (28, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.

What's inside

Hover a line — or a row below — to isolate a market. 11 legs over 365 days.

Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.

MarketDirectionPriceAligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs).WeightShare of the basket this one market carries.ClusterLiquidityEnds
Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027?−115.5%84.5%13.6%merz-government$11kDec 31 '26
Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?−116.0%84.0%12.9%merz-government$42kDec 31 '26
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt?−140.5%59.5%10.1%afd-elections$18kSep 6 '26
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31?−15.8%94.3%8.9%$15kDec 31 '26
Trump out as President before GTA VI?−149.5%50.5%8.9%$95kJul 31 '26
Will AfD win the most seats in 1 German state election in September 2026?−110.2%89.8%8.9%afd-elections$16kDec 31 '26
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?−184.5%15.5%8.6%afd-elections$36kSep 20 '26
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Sachsen-Anhalt parliamentary elections?−198.4%1.6%8.6%afd-elections$30kSep 6 '26
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?−121.3%78.6%7.9%afd-elections$58kSep 20 '26
Nord Stream pipeline turned on before 2027?+16.7%6.7%6.7%$21kDec 31 '26
Will AfD win the second-most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?−120.5%79.5%4.8%afd-elections$14kSep 20 '26

Analysis

BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.

Today5 of 11 legs rising
7 days4 of 11 legs rising
rising toward +falling toward −flat

Carry & horizon

Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
97 days
Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
0.9
Axis charter

Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor economically and institutionally positive outcomes for Germany over roughly the next 18 months: GDP growth rather than recession, stable or falling unemployment, the sitting government completing its term (no snap elections, no chancellor change outside scheduled votes), establishment/incumbent parties holding rather than anti-status-quo parties gaining power, affordable household energy, net retention of citizens and skilled workers, and German equity indices performing well. Negative (-) means the opposite. Judge polarity on this stability/prosperity axis only — NOT on whether an outcome is good or bad according to any political viewpoint. An anti-establishment party gaining power is negative on this axis by definition (it is anti-status-quo), regardless of one's politics.

Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →