Germany Stability & Prosperity
- 1dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +3.9
- 7dChange in the gauge over the window — how far the theme has moved.
- +6.7
- MarketsNumber of live Polymarket markets in this index's basket.
- 7
- LiquidityTotal order-book liquidity across the basket's markets.
- $141k
The index over time
daily gauge · 0–100 theme temperatureThe bold line is the index gauge; the faint lines behind it are every market it has ever held (25, including resolved ones — each ends at its settlement). Pre-launch history is reconstructed from each market's price history; new points accrue daily.
What's inside
7 markets · weights sum to 100%Each line is one market's theme-aligned probability q; thickness scales with basket weight, color groups correlated clusters.
| Market | Direction | Price | Aligned %Market-implied odds this leg resolves the theme's way (price flipped for inverse legs). | WeightShare of the basket this one market carries. | Cluster | Liquidity | Ends |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027? | −1 | 20.5% | 79.5% | 15.0% | merz-government | $30k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will CDU/CSU–SPD German federal coalition break before 2027? | −1 | 18.0% | 82.0% | 15.0% | merz-government | $13k | Dec 31 '26 |
| Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? | −1 | 44.5% | 55.5% | 15.0% | afd-elections | $24k | Sep 6 '26 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | −1 | 7.0% | 93.0% | 14.3% | $13k | Dec 31 '26 | |
| Trump out as President before GTA VI? | −1 | 50.5% | 49.5% | 14.3% | $24k | Jul 31 '26 | |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? | −1 | 86.5% | 13.5% | 13.8% | afd-elections | $12k | Sep 20 '26 |
| Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? | −1 | 16.0% | 84.0% | 12.6% | afd-elections | $24k | Sep 20 '26 |
Analysis
BreadthHow much of the basket moves together.
how much of the basket moves togetherCarry & horizon
- Avg time to resolutionWeighted-average days until the basket's markets settle.
- 133 days
- Carry tiltDrift from deadlines bleeding toward zero, separate from the theme itself moving.
- 1.0
Axis charter
Positive (+) means market-implied probabilities favor economically and institutionally positive outcomes for Germany over roughly the next 18 months: GDP growth rather than recession, stable or falling unemployment, the sitting government completing its term (no snap elections, no chancellor change outside scheduled votes), establishment/incumbent parties holding rather than anti-status-quo parties gaining power, affordable household energy, net retention of citizens and skilled workers, and German equity indices performing well. Negative (-) means the opposite. Judge polarity on this stability/prosperity axis only — NOT on whether an outcome is good or bad according to any political viewpoint. An anti-establishment party gaining power is negative on this axis by definition (it is anti-status-quo), regardless of one's politics.
Full methodology: gauge formula, share-weighting identity, gates & caps →